Kansas Population Race and Ethnicity Report

The Center for Economic Development and Business Research, with funding from the Patterson Family Foundation, forecasted population growth for the regions in Kansas by race, ethnic group, age, and gender over the fifty-year period from 2021 to 2071.  The projections utilized comprehensive data on statewide and regional population, birth, mortality, and migration rates for each demographic category.

The total population of Kansas is projected to grow by more than 468,000 residents, representing an increase of nearly 16% compared to the population in 2021. The growth is expected to average 0.3% annually until 2071, a slight decline from the higher growth rate of 0.54% experienced between 1960 and 2010.

The projections indicate faster growth in the 2050s and 2060s compared to the 2030s and 2040s. While the overall growth rate is slower than Kansas' long-term historical trends, it still shows an acceleration compared to the slow growth seen since 2010. It's important to note that this growth rate varies significantly among different groups within the state, particularly in terms of age, urban or rural location, and race and ethnicity.

Population by Race/Ethnicity
Race 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061 2066 2071
Total 2,934,582 2,970,675 3,031,336 3,076,377 3,102,399 3,142,286 3,174,722 3,243,458 3,302,663 3,363,575 3,402,731
White 2,522,698 2,531,091 2,562,125 2,576,743 2,575,013 2,586,662 2,591,548 2,631,548 2,663,576 2,695,952 2,707,126
Black 181,676 190,660 200,026 208,436 214,729 220,554 225,527 232,306 237,892 242,647 246,768
Other 230,208 248,923 269,185 291,198 312,657 335,070 357,648 379,604 401,195 424,977 448,837
Hispanic 374,093 400,786 432,361 467,345 500,695 531,931 558,794 582,275 605,350 630,134 654,353
Source: CEDBR

When considering the overall rate of population growth for Kansas, it is projected to be 0.32% through 2071. However, this rate differs dramatically when examining specific racial and ethnic groups. In 2021, there were 2.5 million people identifying as white alone. By 2071, this group is projected to grow to 2.71 million, with an annualized growth of only 0.15%. In contrast, persons identifying as black alone are expected to experience a much higher annualized growth rate of 0.72%, increasing from 181,676 in 2021 to 246,768 in 2071, representing a 35.8% increase.

The projections also indicate substantial growth among other minority races, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.9%. This group is projected to grow from 230,208 in 2021 to 448,837 in 2071, a significant 95% increase. Much of this growth is observed in persons identifying as more than one race. Additionally, the Hispanic population, as a separate category independent of racial identity, is another segment expected to experience dramatic growth with an estimated annual rate of 1.5%, resulting in a 74.9% increase from 374,093 in 2021 to 630,134 in 2071.

Overall, the rapid projected growth in minority populations will lead to a substantially more diverse population in Kansas. In 2021, persons identifying as white represented 86.0% of the state's total population, a share that is projected to decline to 79.6% in 2071. This decline is offset by a 1.1 percentage point increase among black persons and a 5.3 percentage point increase among other races. Furthermore, Hispanic persons, who represented 12.7% of the population in 2021, are projected to grow by 6.5 percentage points to comprise 19.2% of the state's population in 2071.

These projected demographic changes highlight the importance of understanding and preparing for a more diverse future population in Kansas. Policymakers and businesses should consider these trends to effectively address the unique challenges and opportunities presented by these demographic shifts.