Kansas Employment Forecast
2023 Kansas Employment Forecast
May Update
The latest data from the Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR) shows that Kansas' employment is expected to add 8,819 jobs, a growth rate of 0.6%, while in 2024, the state is projected to add 11,464 jobs, a growth rate of 0.8%. These positive projections are welcome news for Kansas, which has been recovering from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
"Based on our projections for the next few years, we are seeing steady growth across most industries in Kansas. The durable goods sector is expected to continue its strong performance, while the services sector also shows promising gains. While some industries may experience slight declines, overall, we expect to see a positive trend in employment across the state,” said Jeremy Hill, Director of CEDBR.
The report also shows that the Production industry is projected to see a steady increase in employment, with a growth rate of 1.3% and 1.1% in 2023 and 2024, respectively. The Natural Resources, Mining & Construction industry is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The Trade industry is expected to experience a slight increase of 0.2% and 0.3% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
The Services industry is projected to see positive growth in 2023 and 2024, with a growth rate of 0.6% and 1.0%, respectively. The Professional & Business Services industry is projected to experience a growth rate of 1.5% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024, while the Leisure & Hospitality industry is expected to grow at a rate of 0.6% and 1.2% in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
The government sector is also expected to see positive growth, with a growth rate of 0.5% in 2023 and 2024.
Looking at the Kansas GDP by industry data, the forecasted estimates for 2023 and 2024 show positive growth overall. All industries' total GDP is expected to increase by 2.4% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024, while private sectors are predicted to see a slightly higher growth rate of 2.7% in both 2023 and 2024. The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry is projected to experience significant growth, with an expected increase of 6.2% in 2023 and 16.3% in 2024. Other sectors, such as manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, and professional, scientific, and technical services, are also expected to grow steadily. However, some industries, such as accommodation and food services and other services (except government and government enterprises), are predicted to experience a decline in growth in both 2023 and 2024.
Looking at the Kansas Labor Market, there has been a significant decrease in unemployment rates from 6.2% in 2020 to 2.9% in 2022 and a projected further drop to 2.6% in 2023. This is expected to result in a decrease in the number of unemployed individuals from 87,557 in 2020 to 38,117 in 2023 and 31,547 in 2024.
Moreover, employment figures have been on the rise since 2020, with a notable increase in 2021 and 2022. It is estimated that by 2023, there will be 1,473,952 employed individuals in Kansas, and this number is expected to rise to 1,482,821 in 2024.
Overall, the labor force in Kansas has remained relatively stable, with a slight increase from 1,503,002 in 2020 to 1,514,369 in 2024.
Kansas City Employment Forecast
2023 Kansas City Employment Forecast
May Update
Kansas City's total employment is estimated to reach 484,613 in 2023 and 490,541 in 2024, marking a steady increase of 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively.
The services sector is expected to continue driving job growth, with employment in professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality industries projected to grow by 2.5%, 0.3%, and 0.9%, respectively, by the end of 2023. In 2024, these sectors are expected to see further job growth of 2.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the production sector is expected to increase by 1.5% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The growth is expected to be highly concentrated within the Durable portion of the manufacturing sectors as the region prepares for the Panasonic expansion. The natural resources, mining, and construction industries are projected to remain stable at 24,670 in 2023.
Employment in trade is expected to remain stable, while government jobs are expected to increase by 1.2% in 2023 and 1.1% in 2024.
"The Kansas City labor market is showing signs of consistent growth, with the services sector leading the way," said CEDBR Director Jeremy Hill. "As the region moves forward, it is vital that it continues to support job growth in these sectors and ensure that the workforce is equipped with the skills and knowledge needed to thrive in a rapidly evolving economy."
The Kansas City labor market experienced a 6.4% unemployment rate in 2020, which decreased to 4.4% in 2021. The estimated rate for 2022 is 2.8%, which is expected to remain the same in 2023 and fall to 2.4% in 2024.
The number of unemployed individuals in the region also decreased from 68,622 in 2020 to 48,320 in 2021 and is projected to fall further to 31,471 in 2023 and 27,216 in 2024.
On the other hand, employment in the Kansas City labor market has been steadily increasing. In 2020, there were 1,064,342 individuals employed in the region, which grew to 1,094,373 in 2021. The estimated number of employed individuals for 2022 is 1,117,977 and is expected to reach 1,124,446 in 2023.
The labor force in the Kansas City area has also been steadily increasing, from 1,132,964 in 2020 to 1,142,694 in 2021. The estimated number for 2022 is 1,148,745, which is expected to increase to 1,155,917 in 2023.
*The Kansas City, Kansas metropolitan area portion includes Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami, and Wyandotte Counties.
Overall, the data suggest that the Kansas City labor market is expected to continue its positive trend with lower unemployment rates, more employment opportunities, and a growing labor force in the coming years.
Topeka Employment Forecast
2023 Topeka Employment Forecast
May Update
Topeka is expected to see steady job growth in the coming years, with 2023 and 2024 showing promising forecasts of similar growth it had in 2022.
The projections indicate that Topeka's total employment will increase by 0.3% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024. The services sector is expected to be the primary driver of job growth, with employment in professional and business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and other services projected to increase by up to 1.5% in 2023 and 2024.
Meanwhile, the production industry is projected to experience slight fluctuations, with a 0.3% decline in 2023 but a 1.3% increase in 2024. The Durables segment is expected to have consistent growth, whereas the nondurables sector is expected to slow down after several years of solid growth.
The government industry is projected to experience a slight decline of 0.1% in 2024, while natural resources, mining, and construction are expected to grow by 0.5% in the same year.
CEDBR Director Jeremy Hill stated, "The Topeka employment by industry projections show continued growth and stability in the coming years. These positive projections are a testament to the resilience and adaptability of Topeka's workforce and businesses."
Topeka's labor market is expected to continue its positive trend in the coming years, according to the latest forecasts from the Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate is predicted to decrease from 2.9% in 2022 to 2.7% in 2023, and 2.2% in 2024. This trend indicates a strong labor market and an increased demand for skilled workers.
*The Topeka metropolitan area consists of Jackson, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee, and Wabaunsee counties.
In 2023, the number of unemployed individuals is expected to decline to 3,241 and further drop to 2,603 in 2024. The employment rate is also likely to rise, with an estimated 117,915 employed individuals in 2023, and 118,794 in 2024. This represents a positive growth trend and a promising outlook for Topeka's labor market.
Moreover, the labor force is anticipated to keep expanding, reaching 121,157 in 2023 and 121,397 in 2024, indicating a growing economy and more job opportunities for the residents of Topeka.
Overall, Topeka's labor market is showing positive signs of growth, and the upcoming years hold promise for the city's economy and workforce.
Wichita Employment Forecast
2023 Wichita Employment Forecast
May Update
The Wichita labor market is showing promising growth in employment and a decrease in unemployment in the coming years.
The production sector is expected to experience a steady increase in employment over the next two years, with an estimated growth rate of 2.2% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. The growth is driven by the rebound in aerospace and continued manufacturing expansions. The trade sector is also projected to see a slight increase in employment, with a growth rate of 0.6% in 2023 and 0.5% in 2024. As employment continues to increase and wages are expected to inch up faster than inflation, consumption is expected to help drive the retail side of the trade sector.
The services sector, which makes up Wichita's most significant share of employment, is also projected to see modest growth in 2023 and 2024. Professional and business services are expected to increase by 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, while education and health services are projected to grow by 0.4% and 0.8%. The leisure and hospitality sector is expected to see the largest growth rate in employment, with a projected increase of 0.7% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024.
The government sector is also expected to see employment growth, with an estimated increase of 1.1% in 2023 and a total of 43,424 jobs by 2024.
"The Wichita labor market is showing promising signs of growth, with increasing employment rates and a decline in unemployment," said Jeremy Hill, the Director of CEDBR. "The manufacturing sector is leading the way as firms continue to invest in keeping up with growing demand. We expect continued growth in the coming years, which is great news for the Wichita economy."
The Wichita labor market is expected to continue its positive trajectory in 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate is projected to drop to 3.2% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024, down from 4.6% in 2021. This decrease is due to an estimated increase in employment, which is expected to reach 312,886 in 2023 and 316,586 in 2024.
*The Wichita metropolitan area consists of Sedgwick, Butler, Harvey, and Sumner counties.