2022 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Results
For the Center for Economic Development’s 2022 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, WSU students and Kansas business professionals provided their predictions for the value of the S&P 500 stock market index at close on Thursday, September 1, 2022. Students predicted, on average, a closing value of 4,573, indicating a 7% increase from 4,271.84, the S&P’s closing value on Friday, April 22, 2022. Breaking that up further, the undergraduates predicted 4,681 on average, while the average graduate student prediction was even more pessimistic at 4,316. On the other hand, business professionals predicted a 4,771 average, a nearly 12% increase from the index’s April 22 value. It is important to note that responses from the business survey were collected in November, which may cause differing sentiments.
The median response is more representative of the majority opinion, as an average includes extremes that skew the data. The median of all student guesses was 4,683, about a 10% increase from the S&P’s April 22 position. Business professionals were even more positive with their median, a 14% increase to 4,862.
Wall Street professionals are generally divided on whether the S&P is set to grow or shrink by year-end 2022, but many are cautious, even while having positive views on growth.* Goldman Sachs recently downgraded its estimate to 4,700, considering tightening monetary policy and geopolitical issues. Marko Kolanovic, head of quantitative research at J.P. Morgan, recently lowered his price target to 4,900, a fairly positive outcome, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson expects the index to end 2022 at 4,400, lower than the average and mean for both total students and business professionals.
* https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/03/24/wall-street-firms-are-slashing-sp-500-price-targets-heres-what-they-predict-for-markets/?sh=6afd73df3b0a
S&P 500 2022 Prediction Results
|
|
Undergrads
|
Graduate
|
Student Total
|
Business Prediction |
Minimum
|
3264
|
2600
|
2600
|
3900 |
Lower Quartile |
4603 |
3900 |
4488 |
4298 |
Mean
|
4681
|
4316
|
4573
|
4771 |
Median
|
4700
|
4625
|
4683
|
4862 |
Upper Quartile |
4943 |
4704 |
4851 |
5100 |
Maximum
|
5500
|
5300
|
5500
|
5667 |
|
Read More