Business professionals and Wichita State University Barton School of Business Students are invited to join the S&P 500 Stock Market Prediction Challenge. In this challenge you will make a prediction of what the closing value of the S&P 500 will be on Thursday, September 7, 2023.

The most accurate prediction in each group will win:

  • Complimentary ticket to the 44th Annual Kansas Economic Outlook Conference in October 2023.
  • Recognition - Award presented on stage at the event and on the CEDBR website
  • Major Networking Opportunity - As an attendee at the event, you will have access to hundreds of state and local business leaders

 

Thank you to our Stock Market Prediction Challenge Sponsor

  • 2022 Stock Market Predictions
  • 2022 Stock Market Winners
  • Stock Market Business Entry
  • Stock Market Student Entry

 2022 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Results

For the Center for Economic Development’s 2022 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, WSU students and Kansas business professionals provided their predictions for the value of the S&P 500 stock market index at close on Thursday, September 1, 2022. Students predicted, on average, a closing value of 4,573, indicating a 7% increase from 4,271.84, the S&P’s closing value on Friday, April 22, 2022. Breaking that up further, the undergraduates predicted 4,681 on average, while the average graduate student prediction was even more pessimistic at 4,316. On the other hand, business professionals predicted a 4,771 average, a nearly 12% increase from the index’s April 22 value. It is important to note that responses from the business survey were collected in November, which may cause differing sentiments.

The median response is more representative of the majority opinion, as an average includes extremes that skew the data. The median of all student guesses was 4,683, about a 10% increase from the S&P’s April 22 position. Business professionals were even more positive with their median, a 14% increase to 4,862.

Wall Street professionals are generally divided on whether the S&P is set to grow or shrink by year-end 2022, but many are cautious, even while having positive views on growth.* Goldman Sachs recently downgraded its estimate to 4,700, considering tightening monetary policy and geopolitical issues. Marko Kolanovic, head of quantitative research at J.P. Morgan, recently lowered his price target to 4,900, a fairly positive outcome, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson expects the index to end 2022 at 4,400, lower than the average and mean for both total students and business professionals.

 

* https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/03/24/wall-street-firms-are-slashing-sp-500-price-targets-heres-what-they-predict-for-markets/?sh=6afd73df3b0a

 

S&P 500 2022 Prediction Results

 

Undergrads

Graduate

Student Total

Business Prediction

Minimum

3264

2600

2600

3900

Lower Quartile
 
4603 3900 4488 4298

Mean

4681

4316

4573

4771

Median

4700

4625

4683

4862

Upper Quartile
 
4943 4704 4851 5100

Maximum

5500

5300

5500

5667
 

 

 

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2022 Stock Market Prediction Winners

Student Winner Business Winner
   
Manoj Krishnamaraja
Business Administration Graduate Student
Sarah Hoefgen
Executive Director, El Dorado, Inc.
Guess was 3,998 with and error of -31.14 Guess was 3900 with an error of 66.86

 

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Business Professional Entry Form

 Business Professionals: Deadline for professional submissions is Monday, November 7, 2022.

To Enter Contest

 

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WSU Barton Student Prediction Entry Form

WSU Business Students: The deadline for student submissions is Thursday March 30, 2023. 

To Enter Contest

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