Business professionals and Wichita State University Barton School of Business Students are invited to join the S&P 500 Stock Market Prediction Challenge. In this challenge you will make a prediction of what the closing value of the S&P 500 will be on Thursday, September 7, 2023.

The most accurate prediction in each group will win:

Complimentary ticket to the 44th Annual Kansas Economic Outlook Conference in October 2023.
Recognition - Award presented on stage at the event and on the CEDBR website
Major Networking Opportunity - As an attendee at the event, you will have access to hundreds of state and local business leaders

Thank you to our Stock Market Prediction Challenge Sponsor

2022 Stock Market Predictions
2022 Stock Market Winners
Stock Market Business Entry
Stock Market Student Entry

2022 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Results

For the Center for Economic Development’s 2022 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, WSU students and Kansas business professionals provided their predictions for the value of the S&P 500 stock market index at close on Thursday, September 1, 2022. Students predicted, on average, a closing value of 4,573, indicating a 7% increase from 4,271.84, the S&P’s closing value on Friday, April 22, 2022. Breaking that up further, the undergraduates predicted 4,681 on average, while the average graduate student prediction was even more pessimistic at 4,316. On the other hand, business professionals predicted a 4,771 average, a nearly 12% increase from the index’s April 22 value. It is important to note that responses from the business survey were collected in November, which may cause differing sentiments.

The median response is more representative of the majority opinion, as an average includes extremes that skew the data. The median of all student guesses was 4,683, about a 10% increase from the S&P’s April 22 position. Business professionals were even more positive with their median, a 14% increase to 4,862.

Wall Street professionals are generally divided on whether the S&P is set to grow or shrink by year-end 2022, but many are cautious, even while having positive views on growth.* Goldman Sachs recently downgraded its estimate to 4,700, considering tightening monetary policy and geopolitical issues. Marko Kolanovic, head of quantitative research at J.P. Morgan, recently lowered his price target to 4,900, a fairly positive outcome, while Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson expects the index to end 2022 at 4,400, lower than the average and mean for both total students and business professionals.

* https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2022/03/24/wall-street-firms-are-slashing-sp-500-price-targets-heres-what-they-predict-for-markets/?sh=6afd73df3b0a

S&P 500 2022 Prediction Results
	Undergrads	Graduate	Student Total	Business Prediction
Minimum	3264	2600	2600	3900
Lower Quartile	4603	3900	4488	4298
Mean	4681	4316	4573	4771
Median	4700	4625	4683	4862
Upper Quartile	4943	4704	4851	5100
Maximum	5500	5300	5500	5667

Student Winner	Business Winner

Manoj Krishnamaraja, Business Administration Graduate Student	Sarah Hoefgen Executive Director, El Dorado, Inc.
Guess was 3,998 with and error of -31.14	Guess was 3900 with an error of 66.86

Business Professional Entry Form

Business Professionals: Deadline for professional submissions is Monday, November 7, 2022.

To Enter Contest

WSU Barton Student Prediction Entry Form

WSU Business Students: The deadline for student submissions is Thursday March 30, 2023.

To Enter Contest

2022 Stock Market Prediction Winners

Business Professional Entry Form

WSU Barton Student Prediction Entry Form