2024 Kansas Population Metros Report
This report series presents findings on population growth in Kansas over a fifty-year period from 2022 to 2072. The research conducted by the Center for Economic Development and Business Research, with funding from the Patterson Family Foundation, forecasted population growth for different regions in Kansas by race, Hispanic origin, age, and sex. The projections utilize comprehensive data on statewide and regional population, birth, mortality, and migration rates for various demographic groups.
According to the forecasts, Kansas’s total population is projected to grow by over 469,000 residents by 2072, signifying a cumulative increase of 16% compared to the 2022 population. The expected growth rate is 0.3% annually until 2072, representing a modest decline from the higher growth rate experienced between 1960 and 2010 (0.54%), though markedly higher than the 0.3% annualized growth seen between 2010 and 2022.
Annualized growth rates vary, with a relative slowing between 2032 and 2052 as Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers reach ages of higher mortality. Despite this apparent slowing, fundamental drivers are on the increase throughout this period, such as growing birth counts and increasing diversity. From 2052 onwards, the forecasts estimate a wave of population growth that exceeds Kansas’ growth between 2010 and 2020 (0.3%). Notably, the growth trends differ among different groups within the state, influenced by factors such as age, urban or rural location, and race or ethnicity.
This report will further detail the population growth by metro type and area. To frame the discussion, we must understand the three classifications – Metropolitan, Micropolitan, and Non-Metro. A metropolitan area contains an urbanized core with at least 50,000 people. Metropolitan counties belong to the urban sprawl of these hubs, though they may have lower population density, particularly along the peripheral regions. A micropolitan area is like a metropolitan but with a population above 10,000 but less than 50,000. Kansas has 19 metropolitan counties and 18 micropolitan counties, leaving the remaining 68 as non-metro. The table below denotes which counties belong to a metropolitan or micropolitan area and to which each belongs. Of special note is Doniphan County, which belongs to the metro of St. Joseph, Missouri, illustrating that metropolitan areas are not strictly delineated by state. While Missouri has several counties belonging to the Kansas City metro area, they are excluded from this report to focus the analysis on the state of Kansas.
Kansas’ metropolitan counties have a long history of sustained growth, which is forecast to continue through 2072. As most of Kansas’ population lives in its metros, these counties are the dominant driving factor behind the state’s overall population over the next 50 years.
While the state population is expected to grow by 16% through 2072, growth in the metropolitan counties is expected to be above 26%. Broadly, the population of Kansas’ non-metro counties is expected to decline by a cumulative 18% by 2072 as the historical rural outmigration trend continues. However, the rate of decline slows overall in the 2050s, and numerous rural counties return to a growth trend later in the forecast.
A modest 0.9% growth is forecast for the population of micropolitan counties, though not all micropolitan and metropolitan areas are growing in the same ways. Lawrence is forecasted to grow faster than any other micro or metro area, with a cumulative 46.8% growth by 2072. The largest two metros, Kansas City and Wichita, are expected to grow by 33.9% and 22.1%, respectively. Of Kansas's 21 defined metropolitan and micropolitan areas, nine are expected to grow faster than the state’s overall growth rate, another two are forecast to grow less than the state average, and ten are forecast to decline. The table and chart below contain population and cumulative growth rates by metro/micro area.
These growth patterns are expected to shift the Kansas population distribution even more strongly toward a metropolitan majority than in 2022. While the metropolitan areas already account for 70% of the population, by 2072, this share is expected to climb to 76%, with both the micropolitan and non-metro shares declining to 14.9% and 9.1%, respectively.
Kansas will undergo significant changes in its population distribution over the next five decades. Understanding these trends will be crucial for policymakers and businesses to plan and address these shifts' unique challenges and opportunities.
These forecasts, along with detailed, customizable, embeddable, and downloadable charts and data tables are available on the CEDBR.org website under the population forecasts page at: https://cedbr.org/forecast-blog/population-forecast.
Methodology Updates and Notes
This data represents an update to, and evolution of, CEDBR’s 2023 50-year population forecast from 2021-2071, funded by the Patterson Family Foundation. Broadly, the methodology remains consistent with the 2023 forecast, with two primary updates. First, the starting year has been updated to 2022 from 2021 and now utilizes the Census 5-Year American Community Survey Estimates instead of the 2021 estimates used last year, with subsequent forecasted years adjusted later by one year to remain consistent with the 5-year interval. These five-year intervals are necessary to align with Census ACS age by sex and race/ethnicity data for each county.
The second update within the methodology is a more accurate simulation of the elderly population’s carryover related to mortality between periods. In the 2021-2071 forecast, the population aged 85 and older was subjected to the average mortality rate for all persons over the age of 85, which would then appear in the next period’s estimates. That sum total population 85 and older in the second period was again subjected to the same mortality rate to calculate the carryover to the third period, and so on. In the new 2022-2072 forecast, this carryover population has been calculated by instead identifying the 5-year age cohorts beyond age 84 and subjecting each, individually, to the respective mortality rates for those age groups rather than the average and applying the survivors back into the population in subsequent periods, reported simply as 85 and older to maintain consistency.
The reason this is important for accurately predicting elderly populations is due to how this more closely reflects actual mortality. Individuals aged 95 to 100 naturally have higher mortality rates than individuals aged 85 to 90, and thus the former were previously being overrepresented in the 2021-2071 estimates during the years in which a significant remnant cohort was carried forward five or ten years beyond what would realistically be expected. In effect, this change somewhat reduced the mortality rate for individuals aged 85 to 89 while increasing it notably for individuals aged 90 and above. The chart below compares the inverse mortality rates; the survivorship rates for each 5-year age cohort, which represents the percent chance an individual has of surviving the previous 5 years to reach each listed age cohort’s starting year. Note that an individual’s chance of surviving to age 85 is higher in the 2024 estimates than in the 2023 estimates but continues to decline over time, while in the 2023 estimates the survivorship rate remains the same as they age into older age cohorts.
A vision of how this change impacts the model is by comparing models in their estimates of the same year using linear interpolation between each period. By lining the models up in this way, it is evident that the revised methodology avoids some of the volatility in this population seen in the 2023 estimates, though broadly reflects the same trends, particularly mitigating the notable decline seen through 2026 in the prior model. The net effect of this change is a more stable population in this age group, less influenced by survivorship of the generational echo cohorts that were surviving beyond what is reasonable given the fact that mortality rates increase very sharply beyond age 85.