Kansas' population growth rate is projected to be highest in the 65-year-old and older age cohorts. In 2015, only 14.6% of Kansans were 65 or older, while 57.9% were 20 to 64, and 27.5% were 19 or younger. By 2071, the 65 and older age cohort is expected to have grown by 111,000 residents, an annualized growth rate of 0.45%, representing 17.7% of the state population. Conversely, the 19 and younger age cohorts are expected to have an annual growth rate of 0.17%, adding 67,462 residents and representing 25.1% of the population, retaining its numerical superiority to older people; a projected 852,000 persons under the age of 20 as opposed to the projected 601,000 persons over the age of 65. Though the relative share of elderly persons is expected to grow, these growth rates differ from the previous trend of an increasing population dependency ratio – the number of non-working-age persons to the number of persons aged 20 to 65. In 2021 there were 0.77 non-working-age persons per working-age person; the ratio is expected to decline to 0.75 people in 2071. This trend is enabled by a robust 0.35 percent annualized growth of the working-age population, much of which is concentrated in persons aged 25 to 34.

While the overall rate of population growth for Kansas is projected to be 0.32% through 2071, it differs dramatically by race and ethnicity. In 2021 there were 2.5 million persons identifying as white alone. By 2021, there is projected to be 2.71 million, an annualized growth of only 0.15%. This is in contrast to the 0.72% annualized growth of persons identifying as black alone, growing from 181,676 in 2021 to 246,768 in 2071. The black alone population represents a 35.8% increase from 2021. Even this growth is lower than is projected for other minority races, which together are expected to grow substantially at 1.9% annually, growing from 230,208 in 2021 to 448,837 in 2071, a 95% increase. Much of this growth is seen in persons identifying as more than one race. Hispanic ethnicity, a discrete measure independent of racial identity, is another population segment expected to grow dramatically by an estimated 1.5% annually, or a 74.9% increase from 374,093 in 2021 to 630,134 in 2071. Overall, this rapid projected growth in minorities will lead to a substantially more diverse population. In 2021, persons identifying as white represented 86.0% of the state total, a share that is projected to decline to 79.6% in 2071. The 6.4 percentage points decline is made up by the 1.1 percentage points increase among black persons and 5.3 percentage points among other races. Further, Hispanic persons, who represented 12.7% of the population in 2021, thus grow by 6.5 percentage points to 19.2% of the state population in 2071.

The 2023 Kansas County Population Forecast is an Age-Cohort Survival Model, meaning the population present in the starting year is aged up through the model over time and is subject to mortality, fertility, and migration. For more information about the forecast methodology and to explore the data, visit population.cedbr.org.