THE CHALLENGE

We present a challenge to business professionals to use your powers of deduction and intuition to make the most accurate prediction of what the closing value of the S&P 500 will be on Monday, September 7, 2026. Whether you throw a dart at numbers on a board or create a highly complex equation to take into account all economic variables, your guess could be the winner!

Submissions should be entered HERE by close of business on Friday, November 7, 2025.

THE AWARD

The individual with the most accurate prediction will receive a complimentary invitation to attend and be recognized by their name and company affiliation at the 2026 Kansas Economic Outlook Summit. 

Thank you to our Stock Market Prediction Challenge Sponsor

2025 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Results

For the Center for Economic Development and Business Research 2025 S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, Wichita State University students and Kansas business professionals provided their predictions for the value of the S&P 500 stock market index at close on Monday, September 1, 2025, the actual value at the close was 6,415.54. Respondents had an average prediction of 5697.64, an average error of 717.9, and an underprediction of 11.1%. Graduate student predictions were, on average, the closest, with an average estimate of 5,740.77 and an underestimation error of 674.23  or 10.5%. Undergraduate students predicted the value would be an average of 5,600.63, having an underestimation error of 814.37 or 12.6%. The actual index value during the survey period for students saw more stability than the timeframe of our 2024 report. At the start of the fielding period, the index was valued around 4,982. The opening date was the lowest point in the fielding period, with stable growth in the months since. Notably, respondents were generally pessimistic, with only 5% overestimating their forecast.

Despite the more significant average error among business professionals than students, a business professional made the closest estimate. The most accurate prediction was 6,431, an error of only 15.46 or 0.24%. However, this was a narrow win as the closest student estimate was by an undergraduate student’s predicted value of 6,450, an overestimation error of 34.86 or 0.54%. A consistent theme across all cohorts was an underestimation of the actual value. Overestimations among respondents were rare, comprising only a handful of responses among each cohort. Survey respondents cited a wide array of influential factors in their predictions, though common among them were lingering supply chain issues, rising inflation rates, and the emerging conflict between Russia and Ukraine.