• Kansas
  • Wichita
  • Kansas City
  • Topeka

Kansas Employment Forecast

Released October 3, 2019  (See previous version.)

Total employment in Kansas grew 0.9 percent in 2018 to approximately 1,415,800 workers, which added more than 12,000 new workers to the Kansas economy. The growth was broad-based, with all major sectors of the economy adding jobs. This marked a notable upswing in the Kansas economy after growing by less than 4,000 in 2016 and 2017 combined. Kansas’ unemployment rate continued its eightyear-long trend of decline in 2018 to reach 3.4 percent, the lowest level for the state in 20 years. Unemployment continued to decline for the state into 2019, falling to 3.3 percent in June 2019. Employment growth is expected to continue throughout the year, expanding by a projected 0.8 percent in 2019. Growth is projected to slow modestly in 2020 to 0.6 percent, adding approximately 9,000 new jobs to the state economy. However, due to high levels of uncertainty at both the national and global levels, and elevated national recessionary risks, the projected range for Kansas employment is between 1.1 percent and approximately zero growth.

 

DOWNLOAD PDF VERSION

 

  


.

Wichita Employment Forecast

Released October 3, 2019 (See previous version.)

Total nonfarm employment in the Wichita metropolitan area* grew 1.2 percent in 2018, with 3,500 new jobs created to bring the area’s employment to 298,600 workers. This was a turnaround after Wichita’s total employment declined by 2,200 jobs in 2017. Wichita’s unemployment rate declined for the eighth straight year in 2018 to 3.7 percent, the area’s lowest unemployment rate in the 21st century. Employment growth is projected to continue for the area through 2019, expanding the workforce by 1.3 percent. For 2020, growth is expected to be more modest, as the Wichita economy is projected to add approximately 1,600 new jobs and grow 0.5 percent. The projected range of growth for Wichita’s employment is between 0.1 and 1 percent for 2020, as continued national growth would continue to fuel local growth, but a national or global recession could adversely affect Wichita’s export-oriented industries, such as manufacturing.

 

*The Wichita metropolitan consists of Sedgwick, Butler, Harvey, Kingman, and Sumner counties.

DOWNLOAD PDF VERSION

 

  


.

Kansas City Employment Forecast

Released  October 3, 2019 (See previous version.)

Total nonfarm employment in the Kansas City, MO-KS, metropolitan area* grew by 1.1 percent in 2018, adding 11,800 new jobs. While this growth outpaced both the Kansas and Missouri state averages for employment growth, it still represented slower growth than the Kansas City area experienced from 2013 to 2017, when the area averaged 2 percent. With the continued employment growth, the unemployment rate declined in 2018 to 3.4 percent, its lowest level since 2000. In 2019, growth is expected to increase to 1.4 percent and the economy is projected to add more than 15,000 jobs. For 2020, employment is forecast to slow modestly to 0.9 percent as recessionary fears mount and a tight job market limits the upper end of growth, with the expected range of growth ranging from 0.2 percent to 1.5 percent

*The Kansas City, MO-KS, metropolitan area includes Bates, Caldwell, Cass, Clay, Clinton, Jackson, Lafayette, Platte and Ray counties in Missouri and Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami, and Wyandotte counties in Kansas.

DOWNLOAD PDF VERSION

 

  


.

Topeka Employment Forecast

Released October 3, 2019 (See previous version.)

The Topeka metropolitan area’s* total nonfarm employment grew by 0.3 percent in 2018, adding 300 jobs after the local economy contracted by 800 jobs in 2017. This was a return to the area’s 2011 to 2016 growth pattern, as the area averaged slightly more than 300 jobs annually in that period. The goods producing sectors were the fastest growing in 2018, with the manufacturing sector leading the way with approximately 300 jobs. Unemployment continued its decline in the area for its eighth consecutive year, declining to 3.5 percent, its second-lowest recorded value for the area since 1990. Growth is expected to continue in 2019, adding more than 1,000 jobs, primarily concentrated in the education and health services sector. For 2020, employment is forecast to grow 0.3 percent for the area, with a projected range between 0.6 percent growth and a 0.3 percent decline. The lower-bound range reflects the risk for the local economy due to potential national recessionary concerns.

*The Topeka metropolitan area consists of Jackson, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee, and Wabaunsee counties in Kansas.

DOWNLOAD PDF VERSION

 

  


.

 

CEDBR S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Student Entry Results

For the Second Annual Center for Economic Development and Business Research S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, WSU students provided predictions of the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on August 31st, 2018. As of March 1st, the closing date for entries for the challenge, the S&P 500 stock index closed at 2,677.67 index points after increasing 12.3 percent in the past year. The average prediction by the WSU students for August 31st was 2849 index points, an increase of 6 percent over six months. Almost 70 percent of the entries forecast the index to increase in the next six months, ranging from predictions of increases of 1.4 percent to a 30.7 percent. The entries forecasting a drop in the index ranged from a 3.1 percent decline to an 11.5 percent decline. The median prediction of the students was for the index to rise 212 points in the next six months, for an increase of 7.9 percent. On average, the student entries were more bullish in their predictions for the market than analysts at major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and Bank of America; the consensus 2018 forecast among analysts was for the market to grow approximately 4 percent over that six month period. The entry closest to the actual closing value on August 31st, 2018 will be recognized on stage at the 2018 Kansas Economic Outlook Conference on October 4th, 2018 at the Century II Convention Center in Wichita.

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

August 31st, 2018 Forecast

March 1st 2018

Predicted Change

Median

2,890

2,677

+213

Mean

2,849

2,677

-172

Minimum

2,395

2,677

-283

Maximum

3,500

2,677

+823