Stock Market Prediction Challenge

A challenge is available to W. Frank Barton School of Business Students at Wichita State University to make the most accurate prediction of what the closing value of the S&P 500 will be on Friday, August 30, 2019. The deadline for student submissions is March 1, 2019. 

This challenge was also issued to business professionals for the same closing date, however, business submissions are due by November 4, 2018. 

  • Predict the Stock Market Challenge
  • Requirements
  • Awards
  • Business Predictions
  • Student Predictions
  • 2018 Results

Stock Market Prediction Challenge

A challenge is available to W. Frank Barton School of Business Students at Wichita State University to make the most accurate prediction of what the closing value of the S&P 500 will be on Friday, August 30, 2019. The deadline for student submissions is March 1, 2019. 

This challenge was also issued to business professionals for the same closing date, however, business submissions are due by November 4, 2018. 

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REQUIREMENTS:

  • Students
    • The deadline is open until March 1, 2019.
    • If selected as the winner of the challenge, attend the 2019, 40th Annual Kansas Economic Outlook Conference (October 3, 2019) in order to receive the award.
  • Business Professionals 
    • The deadline is open until November 4, 2018.
    • If selected as the winner of the challenge, attend the 2019, 40th Annual Kansas Economic Outlook Conference (October 3, 2019) in order to receive the award

SUBMISSION FORM:

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The Award

  • $120 Value - Complimentary ticket to the 2018, 39th Annual Kansas Economic Outlook Conference in October 2018.
  • Recognition - Award presented on stage at the event and on the CEDBR website
  • Major Networking Opportunity - As an attendee at the event, you will have access over 800 state and local business leaders
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PREDICTED VALUE ON AUGUST 31, 2018

The contestants in CEDBR’s S&P 500 Prediction Challenge each gave a prediction for the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on August 31st, 2018.  As of November 5th, the closing date for entries into the Challenge, the S&P 500 index was valued at 2,587.  The median prediction among the contestants for the S&P 500 Index is 2,663.58 points.  On average, contestants predicted that the S&P 500 will increase by 3 percent over the next ten months, after the index increased by 14.6 percent this year to date.

Approximately 60 percent of the contestants predicted that the stock market would increase in 2018 over its November 2017 value.  Many of their predictions were more bullish than major analysts forecast for 2018.  Recently, analysts at Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup forecast the S&P 500 to reach 2,500 points, 2,600 points, and 2,675 points, respectively, in 2018. The Federal Reserve Board has forecast continued economic growth in 2018, with modest inflationary expectations and a half point increase in the Federal Funds rate projected.

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

August 31st, 2018 Forecast

November 3rd, 2017

Predicted Change

Median

2,663

2,587

+79

Mean

2,584

2,587

-3

Minimum

1,772

2,587

-815

Maximum

3,065

2,587

+478

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CEDBR S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Student Entry Results

For the Second Annual Center for Economic Development and Business Research S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, WSU students provided predictions of the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on August 31st, 2018. As of March 1st, the closing date for entries for the challenge, the S&P 500 stock index closed at 2,677.67 index points after increasing 12.3 percent in the past year. The average prediction by the WSU students for August 31st was 2849 index points, an increase of 6 percent over six months. Almost 70 percent of the entries forecast the index to increase in the next six months, ranging from predictions of increases of 1.4 percent to a 30.7 percent. The entries forecasting a drop in the index ranged from a 3.1 percent decline to an 11.5 percent decline. The median prediction of the students was for the index to rise 212 points in the next six months, for an increase of 7.9 percent. On average, the student entries were more bullish in their predictions for the market than analysts at major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and Bank of America; the consensus 2018 forecast among analysts was for the market to grow approximately 4 percent over that six month period. The entry closest to the actual closing value on August 31st, 2018 will be recognized on stage at the 2018 Kansas Economic Outlook Conference on October 4th, 2018 at the Century II Convention Center in Wichita.

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

August 31st, 2018 Forecast

March 1st 2018

Predicted Change

Median

2,890

2,677

+213

Mean

2,849

2,677

-172

Minimum

2,395

2,677

-283

Maximum

3,500

2,677

+823

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In January 2018 we launched a competition among Wichita State University students challenging them to submit their prediction for the closing value of the S&P 500 on August 31st, 2018. We would like to recognize the following individual for providing the most accurate prediction for this challenge. Congratulations, Vyvian Koh! He was recognized on stage at the 39th Annual Kansas Economic Outlook Conference on Thursday, October 4, 2018.

Employment

In addition, this year we also asked the business community for their predictions. Ryan Schrack, Director of Community Development for the city of Valley Center, won this year and was also recognized onstage during the ceremony. 

Employment

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